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Simrishamn vs Balkan — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Simrishamn
Simrishamn
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Balkan
Balkan
6/1/2024Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 10Korsavads IC A-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Simrishamn45%
×Draw22%
Balkan33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simrishamn
1.86
Balkan
1.57

Simrishamn creates 18% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 66 away

creates per match

Simrishamn
1.65
Balkan
1.29

allows per match

Simrishamn
1.85
Balkan
2.08

finishing

Simrishamn+0.00on par
Balkan+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simrishamn ↓

Balkan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Simrishamn or draw
67%
Simrishamn or Balkan
78%
Draw or Balkan
55%

Winning margin

Simrishamn wins by 2+
24%
Balkan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Simrishamn 1+ goals
84%
Simrishamn 2+ goals
55%
Simrishamn 3+ goals
28%
Balkan 1+ goals
79%
Balkan 2+ goals
46%
Balkan 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Simrishamn (draw refunded)
58%
Balkan (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simrishamn at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

Balkan away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.08 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simrishamn attack 1.65 + Balkan defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.86

Balkan attack 1.29 + Simrishamn defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Simrishamn scores more
45%
level
22%
Balkan scores more
33%

Simrishamn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Simrishamn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: Simrishamn 1–2 Balkan

Balkan beat Simrishamn 2-1 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Korsavads IC A-plan in Simrishamn.