Balkan 2–3 Simrishamn: Result & Stats

Balkan

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Simrishamn

9/23/2024

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 22Rosengårds IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Balkan44%

×Draw23%

Simrishamn34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BalkanExpected goals in this matchSimrishamn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.58

Balkan

1.83

Simrishamn

1.58

Balkan creates 16% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 26 away

1.61

creates per match

1.50

1.67

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Balkan

1.61

Simrishamn

1.50

allows per match

Balkan

1.67

Simrishamn

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Balkan+0.00on par

Simrishamn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balkan ↓

Simrishamn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Balkan or draw

66%

Balkan or Simrishamn

77%

Draw or Simrishamn

56%

Winning margin

Balkan wins by 2+

24%

Simrishamn wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Balkan 1+ goals

84%

Balkan 2+ goals

54%

Balkan 3+ goals

28%

Simrishamn 1+ goals

79%

Simrishamn 2+ goals

47%

Simrishamn 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Balkan (draw refunded)

57%

Simrishamn (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balkan at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.67 · 66 matches

Simrishamn away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balkan attack 1.61 + Simrishamn defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.83

Simrishamn attack 1.50 + Balkan defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Balkan scores more

44%

level

23%

Simrishamn scores more

34%

Balkan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Balkan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff