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Simmeringer SC vs Mannswörth — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Simmeringer SC
Simmeringer SC
FT
1 – 1
Mannswörth
Mannswörth
4/29/2023Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 23Sportplatz Simmering

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Simmeringer SC49%
×Draw22%
Mannswörth29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simmeringer SC
2.02
Mannswörth
1.52

Simmeringer SC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 59 away

creates per match

Simmeringer SC
1.46
Mannswörth
1.24

allows per match

Simmeringer SC
1.80
Mannswörth
2.58

finishing

Simmeringer SC+0.00on par
Mannswörth+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simmeringer SC ↓

Mannswörth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Simmeringer SC or draw
71%
Simmeringer SC or Mannswörth
78%
Draw or Mannswörth
51%

Winning margin

Simmeringer SC wins by 2+
28%
Mannswörth wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Simmeringer SC 1+ goals
87%
Simmeringer SC 2+ goals
60%
Simmeringer SC 3+ goals
33%
Mannswörth 1+ goals
78%
Mannswörth 2+ goals
45%
Mannswörth 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Simmeringer SC (draw refunded)
63%
Mannswörth (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simmeringer SC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.80 · 46 matches

Mannswörth away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.58 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simmeringer SC attack 1.46 + Mannswörth defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.02

Mannswörth attack 1.24 + Simmeringer SC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Simmeringer SC scores more
49%
level
22%
Mannswörth scores more
29%

Simmeringer SC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Simmeringer SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Simmeringer SC 1–1 Mannswörth

Simmeringer SC and Mannswörth drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Wien on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Simmering in Wien.