Mannswörth 0–1 Simmeringer SC: Result & Stats

Mannswörth

FT

0 – 1

Simmeringer SC

10/7/2022

Landesliga - Wien · Wien - 8Sportplatz Mannswörth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mannswörth46%

×Draw24%

Simmeringer SC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MannswörthExpected goals in this matchSimmeringer SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.30

Mannswörth

1.65

Simmeringer SC

1.30

Mannswörth creates 27% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 45 away

1.40

creates per match

1.02

1.58

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Mannswörth

1.40

Simmeringer SC

1.02

allows per match

Mannswörth

1.58

Simmeringer SC

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mannswörth+0.00on par

Simmeringer SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mannswörth ↓

Simmeringer SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Mannswörth or draw

70%

Mannswörth or Simmeringer SC

76%

Draw or Simmeringer SC

54%

Winning margin

Mannswörth wins by 2+

24%

Simmeringer SC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mannswörth 1+ goals

81%

Mannswörth 2+ goals

49%

Mannswörth 3+ goals

23%

Simmeringer SC 1+ goals

73%

Simmeringer SC 2+ goals

37%

Simmeringer SC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mannswörth (draw refunded)

60%

Simmeringer SC (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mannswörth at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.58 · 57 matches

Simmeringer SC away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mannswörth attack 1.40 + Simmeringer SC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.65

Simmeringer SC attack 1.02 + Mannswörth defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mannswörth scores more

46%

level

24%

Simmeringer SC scores more

30%

Mannswörth at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mannswörth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff