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Simmeringer SC vs Donau — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Simmeringer SC
Simmeringer SC
FT
3 – 2
Donau
Donau
3/18/2023Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 18Sportplatz Simmering

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Simmeringer SC33%
×Draw23%
Donau44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simmeringer SC
1.46
Donau
1.73

Donau creates 18% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 58 away

creates per match

Simmeringer SC
1.46
Donau
1.67

allows per match

Simmeringer SC
1.80
Donau
1.45

finishing

Simmeringer SC+0.00on par
Donau+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simmeringer SC ↓

Donau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Simmeringer SC or draw
56%
Simmeringer SC or Donau
77%
Draw or Donau
67%

Winning margin

Simmeringer SC wins by 2+
15%
Donau wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Simmeringer SC 1+ goals
77%
Simmeringer SC 2+ goals
43%
Simmeringer SC 3+ goals
18%
Donau 1+ goals
82%
Donau 2+ goals
52%
Donau 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Simmeringer SC (draw refunded)
43%
Donau (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simmeringer SC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.80 · 46 matches

Donau away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.45 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simmeringer SC attack 1.46 + Donau defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.46

Donau attack 1.67 + Simmeringer SC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Simmeringer SC scores more
33%
level
23%
Donau scores more
44%

Donau at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Donau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Simmeringer SC 3–2 Donau

Simmeringer SC beat Donau 3-2 in Landesliga - Wien on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Simmering in Wien.