Donau 1–0 Simmeringer SC: Result & Stats

Donau

FT

1 – 0

Simmeringer SC

3/22/2024

Landesliga - Wien · Wien - 19Sportplatz SV Donau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Donau55%

×Draw23%

Simmeringer SC22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DonauExpected goals in this matchSimmeringer SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.02

Donau

1.78

Simmeringer SC

1.02

Donau creates 75% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

1.65

creates per match

1.02

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Donau

1.65

Simmeringer SC

1.02

allows per match

Donau

1.02

Simmeringer SC

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Donau+0.00on par

Simmeringer SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donau ↓

Simmeringer SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Donau or draw

78%

Donau or Simmeringer SC

77%

Draw or Simmeringer SC

45%

Winning margin

Donau wins by 2+

31%

Simmeringer SC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Donau 1+ goals

83%

Donau 2+ goals

53%

Donau 3+ goals

26%

Simmeringer SC 1+ goals

64%

Simmeringer SC 2+ goals

27%

Simmeringer SC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Donau (draw refunded)

72%

Simmeringer SC (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donau at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Simmeringer SC away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donau attack 1.65 + Simmeringer SC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.78

Simmeringer SC attack 1.02 + Donau defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Donau scores more

55%

level

23%

Simmeringer SC scores more

22%

Donau at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Donau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff