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Simba vs Saint Eloi Lupopo — Ligue 1 2019

Simba
Simba
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Saint Eloi Lupopo
Saint Eloi Lupopo
3/29/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Simba25%
×Draw29%
Saint Eloi Lupopo46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba
0.84
Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.26

Saint Eloi Lupopo creates 50% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 98 away

creates per match

Simba
0.92
Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.49

allows per match

Simba
1.03
Saint Eloi Lupopo
0.77

finishing

Simba+0.00on par
Saint Eloi Lupopo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba ↓

Saint Eloi Lupopo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Simba or draw
54%
Simba or Saint Eloi Lupopo
71%
Draw or Saint Eloi Lupopo
75%

Winning margin

Simba wins by 2+
8%
Saint Eloi Lupopo wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Simba 1+ goals
57%
Simba 2+ goals
21%
Simba 3+ goals
5%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 1+ goals
72%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 2+ goals
36%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Simba (draw refunded)
35%
Saint Eloi Lupopo (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.03 · 92 matches

Saint Eloi Lupopo away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.77 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba attack 0.92 + Saint Eloi Lupopo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.84

Saint Eloi Lupopo attack 1.49 + Simba defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Simba scores more
25%
level
29%
Saint Eloi Lupopo scores more
46%

Saint Eloi Lupopo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Saint Eloi Lupopo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Simba 1–1 Saint Eloi Lupopo

Simba and Saint Eloi Lupopo drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on March 29, 2026.