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Saint Eloi Lupopo vs Simba — Ligue 1 2019

Saint Eloi Lupopo
Saint Eloi Lupopo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Simba
Simba
11/8/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 6Stade de la Victoire

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Saint Eloi Lupopo53%
×Draw28%
Simba18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.34
Simba
0.66

Saint Eloi Lupopo creates 103% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 89 away

creates per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.43
Simba
0.84

allows per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo
0.48
Simba
1.25

finishing

Saint Eloi Lupopo+0.00on par
Simba+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Eloi Lupopo ↓

Simba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Saint Eloi Lupopo or draw
82%
Saint Eloi Lupopo or Simba
72%
Draw or Simba
47%

Winning margin

Saint Eloi Lupopo wins by 2+
26%
Simba wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Saint Eloi Lupopo 1+ goals
74%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 2+ goals
39%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 3+ goals
15%
Simba 1+ goals
48%
Simba 2+ goals
14%
Simba 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Saint Eloi Lupopo (draw refunded)
74%
Simba (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Eloi Lupopo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.48 · 95 matches

Simba away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Eloi Lupopo attack 1.43 + Simba defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34

Simba attack 0.84 + Saint Eloi Lupopo defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Saint Eloi Lupopo scores more
53%
level
28%
Simba scores more
18%

Saint Eloi Lupopo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Saint Eloi Lupopo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saint Eloi Lupopo vs Simba

Saint Eloi Lupopo and Simba drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stade de la Victoire in Lubumbashi.