Simba 2–1 Pamba Jiji: Result & Stats

Simba

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Pamba Jiji

L. Gueye 65'

E. Mpanzu 8'

M. Tegisi 18'

6/14/2026

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 26KMC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Simba66%

×Draw26%

Pamba Jiji8%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SimbaExpected goals in this matchPamba Jiji

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.32

Simba

1.44

Pamba Jiji

0.32

Simba creates 350% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.75

creates per match

0.38

0.25

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Simba

1.75

Pamba Jiji

0.38

allows per match

Simba

0.25

Pamba Jiji

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Simba+0.00on par

Pamba Jiji+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No79
Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba ↓

Pamba Jiji →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–025%

1–18%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–13%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (25%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

52%48%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Simba or draw

92%

Simba or Pamba Jiji

74%

Draw or Pamba Jiji

34%

Winning margin

Simba wins by 2+

35%

Pamba Jiji wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Simba 1+ goals

76%

Simba 2+ goals

42%

Simba 3+ goals

18%

Pamba Jiji 1+ goals

27%

Pamba Jiji 2+ goals

4%

Pamba Jiji 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Simba (draw refunded)

89%

Pamba Jiji (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

13%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.25 · 8 matches

Pamba Jiji away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba attack 1.75 + Pamba Jiji defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.44

Pamba Jiji attack 0.38 + Simba defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Simba scores more

66%

level

26%

Pamba Jiji scores more

8%

Simba at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

13'

18'

22'

45+1'

59'

I. Abraham← A. Kadikilo

59'

K. Kunambi← H. Kibailo

62'

C. Chama← A. Kante

65'

L. Gueye

74'

S. Antwi← J. Mwashinga

74'

P. Lwasa← H. Msabila

76'

S. Antwi

77'

S. Kapombe← Duchu

77'

S. Mwalimu← L. Gueye

81'

N. Mussa← Z. Hamis

87'

M. Abraham← A. A. Oura

90+2'

M. Tegisi

Simba

Pamba

33

Geoffrey

2

Mangalo

5

Eshihanda

18

▼

Kadikilo

36

▼

Kibailo

10

Nahimana

17

Nakibinge

23

▼

Mwashinga

30

▼

Hamis

9

⚽

Tegisi

54

▼

Msabila

39

Tanja

15

▼

23

25

32

8

▼

Kante

21

Kagoma

34

⚽

Mpanzu

7

⚽

▼

Gueye

20

▼

Oura

35

A

Maema

Manager: Steve Barker

62'▲C. Chama←▼A. Kante

77'▲S. Kapombe←▼Duchu

77'▲S. Mwalimu←▼L. Gueye

87'▲M. Abraham←▼A. A. Oura

Simba substitutes

28Abel5Mligo12Kapombe60Mbegu10Loemba17Chama18Abraham37Semfuko63Kibaila40Mwalimu

59'▲I. Abraham←▼A. Kadikilo

59'▲K. Kunambi←▼H. Kibailo

74'▲S. Antwi←▼J. Mwashinga

74'▲P. Lwasa←▼H. Msabila

81'▲N. Mussa←▼Z. Hamis

Pamba Jiji substitutes

16Kamara3Abraham50Charles11Mussa12Antwi15Kunambi19Lwasa22Chambela68Ruta