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Simba vs Pamba Jiji — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Simba
Simba
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Pamba Jiji
Pamba Jiji
5/8/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 27KMC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Simba73%
×Draw19%
Pamba Jiji8%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba
1.98
Pamba Jiji
0.47

Simba creates 321% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

creates per match

Simba
2.43
Pamba Jiji
0.47

allows per match

Simba
0.48
Pamba Jiji
1.53

finishing

Simba+0.00on par
Pamba Jiji+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba ↓

Pamba Jiji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Simba or draw
92%
Simba or Pamba Jiji
81%
Draw or Pamba Jiji
27%

Winning margin

Simba wins by 2+
47%
Pamba Jiji wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Simba 1+ goals
86%
Simba 2+ goals
59%
Simba 3+ goals
31%
Pamba Jiji 1+ goals
37%
Pamba Jiji 2+ goals
8%
Pamba Jiji 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Simba (draw refunded)
90%
Pamba Jiji (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.48 · 23 matches

Pamba Jiji away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba attack 2.43 + Pamba Jiji defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.98

Pamba Jiji attack 0.47 + Simba defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Simba scores more
73%
level
19%
Pamba Jiji scores more
8%

Simba at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Simba vs Pamba Jiji

Simba beat Pamba Jiji 5-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on May 8, 2025.

The match was played at KMC Stadium in Dar es Salaam.