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Simba vs Namungo — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Simba
Simba
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Namungo
Namungo
D. Mavambo 85'
J. C. Ahoua 33'
S. Kapombe 4'
10/25/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 5KMC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Simba68%
×Draw21%
Namungo11%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba
1.85
Namungo
0.57

Simba creates 225% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 36 away

creates per match

Simba
2.46
Namungo
0.72

allows per match

Simba
0.43
Namungo
1.25

finishing

Simba+0.00on par
Namungo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba ↓

Namungo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Simba or draw
89%
Simba or Namungo
79%
Draw or Namungo
32%

Winning margin

Simba wins by 2+
41%
Namungo wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Simba 1+ goals
84%
Simba 2+ goals
55%
Simba 3+ goals
28%
Namungo 1+ goals
43%
Namungo 2+ goals
11%
Namungo 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Simba (draw refunded)
86%
Namungo (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

Namungo away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.25 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba attack 2.46 + Namungo defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.85

Namungo attack 0.72 + Simba defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Simba scores more
68%
level
21%
Namungo scores more
11%

Simba at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
S. Kapombe
33'
J. C. Ahoua↳ S. Mukwala
85'
D. Mavambo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Simba 3 – 0 Namungo

Simba beat Namungo 3-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on October 25, 2024.

Goals: S. Kapombe (4'), J. C. Ahoua (33'), D. Mavambo (85').

The match was played at KMC Stadium in Dar es Salaam.