Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Namungo vs Simba — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Namungo
Namungo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Simba
Simba
E. Balua 89' (OG)
K. Sabato 39'
E. Balua 69'
E. Onana 33'
4/30/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 24Majaliwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Namungo19%
×Draw27%
Simba53%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namungo
0.73
Simba
1.41

Simba creates 93% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 28 away

creates per match

Namungo
1.00
Simba
1.75

allows per match

Namungo
1.06
Simba
0.46

finishing

Namungo+0.00on par
Simba+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namungo ↓

Simba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–117%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Namungo or draw
47%
Namungo or Simba
73%
Draw or Simba
81%

Winning margin

Namungo wins by 2+
6%
Simba wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Namungo 1+ goals
52%
Namungo 2+ goals
17%
Namungo 3+ goals
4%
Simba 1+ goals
76%
Simba 2+ goals
41%
Simba 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Namungo (draw refunded)
27%
Simba (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namungo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

Simba away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namungo attack 1.00 + Simba defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.73

Simba attack 1.75 + Namungo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Namungo scores more
19%
level
27%
Simba scores more
53%

Simba at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
E. Onana
39'
K. Sabato
69'
E. Balua
89'
E. BaluaOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Namungo 2 – 2 Simba

Namungo and Simba drew 2-2 in Ligi kuu Bara on April 30, 2024.

Goals: E. Onana (33'), K. Sabato (39'), E. Balua (69', 89' o.g.).

The match was played at Majaliwa Stadium in Ruangwa.