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Simba vs Mbeya City — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Simba
Simba
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mbeya City
Mbeya City
P. Banda 75'
P. O. Sakho 55', 38'
6/16/2022Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 27Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Simba68%
×Draw20%
Mbeya City12%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba
2.05
Mbeya City
0.74

Simba creates 177% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 21 away

creates per match

Simba
2.43
Mbeya City
1.00

allows per match

Simba
0.48
Mbeya City
1.67

finishing

Simba+0.00on par
Mbeya City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba ↓

Mbeya City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Simba or draw
88%
Simba or Mbeya City
80%
Draw or Mbeya City
32%

Winning margin

Simba wins by 2+
43%
Mbeya City wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Simba 1+ goals
87%
Simba 2+ goals
61%
Simba 3+ goals
33%
Mbeya City 1+ goals
52%
Mbeya City 2+ goals
17%
Mbeya City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Simba (draw refunded)
84%
Mbeya City (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.48 · 23 matches

Mbeya City away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba attack 2.43 + Mbeya City defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.05

Mbeya City attack 1.00 + Simba defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Simba scores more
68%
level
20%
Mbeya City scores more
12%

Simba at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
P. O. Sakho
55'
P. O. Sakho↳ M. Yassin
75'
P. Banda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Simba vs Mbeya City

Simba beat Mbeya City 3-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on June 16, 2022.

Goals: P. O. Sakho (38', 55'), P. Banda (75').

The match was played at Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.