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Mbeya City vs Simba — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Mbeya City
Mbeya City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Simba
Simba
T. Seif Kiakala 78'
M. Yassin 15'
11/23/2022Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 5Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Mbeya City17%
×Draw27%
Simba56%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbeya City
0.64
Simba
1.44

Simba creates 125% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 24 away

creates per match

Mbeya City
0.86
Simba
1.75

allows per match

Mbeya City
1.14
Simba
0.42

finishing

Mbeya City+0.00on par
Simba+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbeya City ↓

Simba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–118%
0–213%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mbeya City or draw
44%
Mbeya City or Simba
73%
Draw or Simba
83%

Winning margin

Mbeya City wins by 2+
4%
Simba wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Mbeya City 1+ goals
47%
Mbeya City 2+ goals
14%
Mbeya City 3+ goals
3%
Simba 1+ goals
76%
Simba 2+ goals
42%
Simba 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mbeya City (draw refunded)
23%
Simba (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbeya City at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Simba away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbeya City attack 0.86 + Simba defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.64

Simba attack 1.75 + Mbeya City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mbeya City scores more
17%
level
27%
Simba scores more
56%

Simba at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
M. Yassin↳ J. Bocco
78'
T. Seif Kiakala

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mbeya City vs Simba

Mbeya City and Simba drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on November 23, 2022.

Goals: M. Yassin (15'), T. Seif Kiakala (78').

The match was played at Sokoine Stadium in Mbeya.