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Simba vs KMC — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Simba
Simba
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
KMC
KMC
11/6/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 11KMC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Simba79%
×Draw18%
KMC3%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba
1.88
KMC
0.19

Simba creates 889% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Simba
1.75
KMC
0.13

allows per match

Simba
0.25
KMC
2.00

finishing

Simba+0.00on par
KMC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

85%No
  • No85
  • Yes15

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba ↓

KMC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–15%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–022%
2–14%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–13%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Simba or draw
97%
Simba or KMC
82%
Draw or KMC
21%

Winning margin

Simba wins by 2+
51%
KMC wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Simba 1+ goals
85%
Simba 2+ goals
56%
Simba 3+ goals
29%
KMC 1+ goals
17%
KMC 2+ goals
2%
KMC 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Simba (draw refunded)
96%
KMC (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
10%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.25 · 8 matches

KMC away — creates 0.13, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba attack 1.75 + KMC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

KMC attack 0.13 + Simba defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Simba scores more
79%
level
18%
KMC scores more
3%

Simba at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Simba 4 – 0 KMC

Simba beat KMC 4-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on November 6, 2024.

The match was played at KMC Stadium in Dar es Salaam.