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KMC vs Simba — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

KMC
KMC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Simba
Simba
R. Chambo 7'
S. Mukwala 47', 15'
5/11/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 26KMC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

KMC10%
×Draw20%
Simba70%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KMC
0.60
Simba
1.97

Simba creates 228% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

KMC
0.63
Simba
2.43

allows per match

KMC
1.50
Simba
0.57

finishing

KMC+0.00on par
Simba+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KMC ↓

Simba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–115%
0–215%
0–310%
0–45%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

KMC or draw
30%
KMC or Simba
80%
Draw or Simba
90%

Winning margin

KMC wins by 2+
2%
Simba wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

KMC 1+ goals
45%
KMC 2+ goals
12%
KMC 3+ goals
2%
Simba 1+ goals
86%
Simba 2+ goals
58%
Simba 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

KMC (draw refunded)
13%
Simba (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KMC at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Simba away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KMC attack 0.63 + Simba defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.60

Simba attack 2.43 + KMC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

KMC scores more
10%
level
20%
Simba scores more
70%

Simba at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
R. Chambo
15'
S. Mukwala
47'
S. Mukwala↳ J. Mutale

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: KMC 1–2 Simba

Simba beat KMC 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on May 11, 2025.

Goals: R. Chambo (7'), S. Mukwala (15', 47').

The match was played at KMC Stadium in Dar es Salaam.