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Simba vs Kagera Sugar — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Simba
Simba
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kagera Sugar
Kagera Sugar
12/15/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 12Uhuru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Simba66%
×Draw22%
Kagera Sugar12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba
1.84
Kagera Sugar
0.64

Simba creates 188% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 96 away

creates per match

Simba
2.37
Kagera Sugar
0.75

allows per match

Simba
0.52
Kagera Sugar
1.31

finishing

Simba+0.00on par
Kagera Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba ↓

Kagera Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Simba or draw
88%
Simba or Kagera Sugar
78%
Draw or Kagera Sugar
34%

Winning margin

Simba wins by 2+
40%
Kagera Sugar wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Simba 1+ goals
84%
Simba 2+ goals
55%
Simba 3+ goals
28%
Kagera Sugar 1+ goals
47%
Kagera Sugar 2+ goals
14%
Kagera Sugar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Simba (draw refunded)
84%
Kagera Sugar (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.52 · 111 matches

Kagera Sugar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.31 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba attack 2.37 + Kagera Sugar defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.84

Kagera Sugar attack 0.75 + Simba defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Simba scores more
66%
level
22%
Kagera Sugar scores more
12%

Simba at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Simba vs Kagera Sugar

Simba beat Kagera Sugar 3-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 15, 2023.

The match was played at Uhuru Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.