Kagera Sugar 2–5 Simba: Result & Stats

Kagera Sugar

FT

2 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Simba

12/21/2024

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 15Kaitaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Kagera Sugar21%

×Draw29%

Simba50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kagera SugarExpected goals in this matchSimba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.74

1.32

Kagera Sugar

0.74

Simba

1.32

Simba creates 78% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 111 away

0.97

creates per match

1.72

0.92

allows per match

0.51

creates per match

Kagera Sugar

0.97

Simba

1.72

allows per match

Kagera Sugar

0.92

Simba

0.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kagera Sugar+0.00on par

Simba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kagera Sugar ↓

Simba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–117%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kagera Sugar or draw

50%

Kagera Sugar or Simba

71%

Draw or Simba

79%

Winning margin

Kagera Sugar wins by 2+

6%

Simba wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Kagera Sugar 1+ goals

52%

Kagera Sugar 2+ goals

17%

Kagera Sugar 3+ goals

4%

Simba 1+ goals

73%

Simba 2+ goals

38%

Simba 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kagera Sugar (draw refunded)

29%

Simba (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kagera Sugar at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.92 · 95 matches

Simba away — creates 1.72, concedes 0.51 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kagera Sugar attack 0.97 + Simba defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.74

Simba attack 1.72 + Kagera Sugar defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kagera Sugar scores more

21%

level

29%

Simba scores more

50%

Simba at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff