Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Simba Bhora vs Sheasham — Premier Soccer League 2026

Simba Bhora
Simba Bhora
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sheasham
Sheasham
9/17/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 23Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Simba Bhora52%
×Draw31%
Sheasham17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba Bhora
1.21
Sheasham
0.57

Simba Bhora creates 112% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 17 away

creates per match

Simba Bhora
1.13
Sheasham
0.59

allows per match

Simba Bhora
0.55
Sheasham
1.29

finishing

Simba Bhora+0.00on par
Sheasham+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba Bhora ↓

Sheasham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Simba Bhora or draw
83%
Simba Bhora or Sheasham
69%
Draw or Sheasham
48%

Winning margin

Simba Bhora wins by 2+
24%
Sheasham wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Simba Bhora 1+ goals
70%
Simba Bhora 2+ goals
34%
Simba Bhora 3+ goals
12%
Sheasham 1+ goals
43%
Sheasham 2+ goals
11%
Sheasham 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Simba Bhora (draw refunded)
75%
Sheasham (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba Bhora at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.55 · 62 matches

Sheasham away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba Bhora attack 1.13 + Sheasham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sheasham attack 0.59 + Simba Bhora defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Simba Bhora scores more
52%
level
31%
Sheasham scores more
17%

Simba Bhora at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Simba Bhora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Simba Bhora vs Sheasham

Simba Bhora beat Sheasham 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Baobab Stadium in Ngezi.