Sheasham 1–1 Simba Bhora: Result & Stats

Sheasham

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Simba Bhora

4/23/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 6Mandava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sheasham32%

×Draw34%

Simba Bhora34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SheashamExpected goals in this matchSimba Bhora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

0.88

Sheasham

0.85

Simba Bhora

0.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 62 away

0.76

creates per match

0.94

0.82

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Sheasham

0.76

Simba Bhora

0.94

allows per match

Sheasham

0.82

Simba Bhora

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheasham+0.00on par

Simba Bhora+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheasham ↓

Simba Bhora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–116%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Sheasham or draw

66%

Sheasham or Simba Bhora

66%

Draw or Simba Bhora

68%

Winning margin

Sheasham wins by 2+

11%

Simba Bhora wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sheasham 1+ goals

57%

Sheasham 2+ goals

21%

Sheasham 3+ goals

5%

Simba Bhora 1+ goals

59%

Simba Bhora 2+ goals

22%

Simba Bhora 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sheasham (draw refunded)

49%

Simba Bhora (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheasham at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Simba Bhora away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.95 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheasham attack 0.76 + Simba Bhora defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

Simba Bhora attack 0.94 + Sheasham defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Sheasham scores more

32%

level

34%

Simba Bhora scores more

34%

Simba Bhora at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Simba Bhora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff