Simba Bhora 2–0 Chegutu Pirates: Result & Stats

Simba Bhora

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Chegutu Pirates

9/25/2024

Premier Soccer League · Round 27Wadzanai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Simba Bhora48%

×Draw35%

Chegutu Pirates16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Simba BhoraExpected goals in this matchChegutu Pirates

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.45

Simba Bhora

1.00

Chegutu Pirates

0.45

Simba Bhora creates 122% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 17 away

1.13

creates per match

0.35

0.55

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Simba Bhora

1.13

Chegutu Pirates

0.35

allows per match

Simba Bhora

0.55

Chegutu Pirates

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Simba Bhora+0.00on par

Chegutu Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

Under82
Over18

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No77
Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba Bhora ↓

Chegutu Pirates →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–023%

0–111%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–023%

1–111%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

77%23%1.5

43%57%2.5

18%82%3.5

6%94%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Simba Bhora or draw

84%

Simba Bhora or Chegutu Pirates

65%

Draw or Chegutu Pirates

52%

Winning margin

Simba Bhora wins by 2+

19%

Chegutu Pirates wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Simba Bhora 1+ goals

63%

Simba Bhora 2+ goals

26%

Simba Bhora 3+ goals

8%

Chegutu Pirates 1+ goals

36%

Chegutu Pirates 2+ goals

8%

Chegutu Pirates 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Simba Bhora (draw refunded)

75%

Chegutu Pirates (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

12%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba Bhora at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.55 · 62 matches

Chegutu Pirates away — creates 0.35, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba Bhora attack 1.13 + Chegutu Pirates defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Chegutu Pirates attack 0.35 + Simba Bhora defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Simba Bhora scores more

48%

level

35%

Chegutu Pirates scores more

16%

Simba Bhora at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Simba Bhora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff