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Chegutu Pirates vs Simba Bhora — Premier Soccer League 2026

Chegutu Pirates
Chegutu Pirates
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Simba Bhora
Simba Bhora
5/5/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 10Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chegutu Pirates31%
×Draw30%
Simba Bhora39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chegutu Pirates
0.94
Simba Bhora
1.09

Simba Bhora creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 62 away

creates per match

Chegutu Pirates
0.94
Simba Bhora
0.94

allows per match

Chegutu Pirates
1.24
Simba Bhora
0.95

finishing

Chegutu Pirates+0.00on par
Simba Bhora+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chegutu Pirates ↓

Simba Bhora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chegutu Pirates or draw
61%
Chegutu Pirates or Simba Bhora
70%
Draw or Simba Bhora
69%

Winning margin

Chegutu Pirates wins by 2+
11%
Simba Bhora wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chegutu Pirates 1+ goals
61%
Chegutu Pirates 2+ goals
24%
Chegutu Pirates 3+ goals
7%
Simba Bhora 1+ goals
66%
Simba Bhora 2+ goals
30%
Simba Bhora 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chegutu Pirates (draw refunded)
44%
Simba Bhora (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chegutu Pirates at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Simba Bhora away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.95 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chegutu Pirates attack 0.94 + Simba Bhora defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Simba Bhora attack 0.94 + Chegutu Pirates defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chegutu Pirates scores more
31%
level
30%
Simba Bhora scores more
39%

Simba Bhora at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Simba Bhora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chegutu Pirates vs Simba Bhora

Simba Bhora beat Chegutu Pirates 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Baobab Stadium in Ngezi.