Silver Strikers 1–0 Rumphi United: Result & Stats

Silver Strikers

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rumphi United

3/26/2022

Super League · Round 2Silver Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Silver Strikers80%

×Draw14%

Rumphi United6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Silver StrikersExpected goals in this matchRumphi United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

0.52

Silver Strikers

2.50

Rumphi United

0.52

Silver Strikers creates 381% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 15 away

1.93

creates per match

0.40

0.63

allows per match

3.07

creates per match

Silver Strikers

1.93

Rumphi United

0.40

allows per match

Silver Strikers

0.63

Rumphi United

3.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Silver Strikers+0.00on par

Rumphi United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silver Strikers ↓

Rumphi United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Silver Strikers or draw

94%

Silver Strikers or Rumphi United

86%

Draw or Rumphi United

20%

Winning margin

Silver Strikers wins by 2+

58%

Rumphi United wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Silver Strikers 1+ goals

92%

Silver Strikers 2+ goals

71%

Silver Strikers 3+ goals

45%

Rumphi United 1+ goals

41%

Rumphi United 2+ goals

10%

Rumphi United 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Silver Strikers (draw refunded)

93%

Rumphi United (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silver Strikers at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.63 · 76 matches

Rumphi United away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silver Strikers attack 1.93 + Rumphi United defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.50

Rumphi United attack 0.40 + Silver Strikers defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Silver Strikers scores more

80%

level

14%

Rumphi United scores more

6%

Silver Strikers at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Silver Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff