Rumphi United 0–1 Silver Strikers: Result & Stats

Rumphi United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Silver Strikers

8/21/2022

Super League · Round 15Rumphi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rumphi United17%

×Draw27%

Silver Strikers56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rumphi UnitedExpected goals in this matchSilver Strikers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.65

1.45

Rumphi United

0.65

Silver Strikers

1.45

Silver Strikers creates 123% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

0.60

creates per match

1.17

1.73

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Rumphi United

0.60

Silver Strikers

1.17

allows per match

Rumphi United

1.73

Silver Strikers

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rumphi United+0.00on par

Silver Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rumphi United ↓

Silver Strikers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–118%

0–213%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Rumphi United or draw

44%

Rumphi United or Silver Strikers

73%

Draw or Silver Strikers

83%

Winning margin

Rumphi United wins by 2+

4%

Silver Strikers wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Rumphi United 1+ goals

48%

Rumphi United 2+ goals

14%

Rumphi United 3+ goals

3%

Silver Strikers 1+ goals

77%

Silver Strikers 2+ goals

42%

Silver Strikers 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Rumphi United (draw refunded)

23%

Silver Strikers (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rumphi United at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Silver Strikers away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.70 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rumphi United attack 0.60 + Silver Strikers defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.65

Silver Strikers attack 1.17 + Rumphi United defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rumphi United scores more

17%

level

27%

Silver Strikers scores more

56%

Silver Strikers at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Silver Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff