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Silver Strikers vs Ntopwa — Super League 2026

Silver Strikers
Silver Strikers
FT
3 – 0
Ntopwa
Ntopwa
9/22/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Nankhaka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Silver Strikers69%
×Draw20%
Ntopwa11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silver Strikers
2.00
Ntopwa
0.66

Silver Strikers creates 203% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 16 away

creates per match

Silver Strikers
2.00
Ntopwa
0.69

allows per match

Silver Strikers
0.62
Ntopwa
2.00

finishing

Silver Strikers+0.00on par
Ntopwa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silver Strikers ↓

Ntopwa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Silver Strikers or draw
89%
Silver Strikers or Ntopwa
80%
Draw or Ntopwa
31%

Winning margin

Silver Strikers wins by 2+
43%
Ntopwa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Silver Strikers 1+ goals
86%
Silver Strikers 2+ goals
59%
Silver Strikers 3+ goals
32%
Ntopwa 1+ goals
48%
Ntopwa 2+ goals
14%
Ntopwa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Silver Strikers (draw refunded)
86%
Ntopwa (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silver Strikers at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.62 · 82 matches

Ntopwa away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silver Strikers attack 2.00 + Ntopwa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Ntopwa attack 0.69 + Silver Strikers defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Silver Strikers scores more
69%
level
20%
Ntopwa scores more
11%

Silver Strikers at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Silver Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Silver Strikers 3–0 Ntopwa

Silver Strikers beat Ntopwa 3-0 in Super League on September 22, 2021.

The match was played at Nankhaka Stadium in Lilongwe.