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Ntopwa vs Silver Strikers — Super League 2026

Ntopwa
Ntopwa
FT
0 – 1
Silver Strikers
Silver Strikers
8/4/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Kamuzu Stadium (Blantyre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ntopwa25%
×Draw28%
Silver Strikers47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ntopwa
0.91
Silver Strikers
1.35

Silver Strikers creates 48% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 84 away

creates per match

Ntopwa
1.11
Silver Strikers
1.17

allows per match

Ntopwa
1.53
Silver Strikers
0.70

finishing

Ntopwa+0.00on par
Silver Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ntopwa ↓

Silver Strikers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ntopwa or draw
53%
Ntopwa or Silver Strikers
72%
Draw or Silver Strikers
75%

Winning margin

Ntopwa wins by 2+
9%
Silver Strikers wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ntopwa 1+ goals
60%
Ntopwa 2+ goals
23%
Ntopwa 3+ goals
6%
Silver Strikers 1+ goals
74%
Silver Strikers 2+ goals
39%
Silver Strikers 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ntopwa (draw refunded)
35%
Silver Strikers (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ntopwa at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Silver Strikers away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.70 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ntopwa attack 1.11 + Silver Strikers defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.91

Silver Strikers attack 1.17 + Ntopwa defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ntopwa scores more
25%
level
28%
Silver Strikers scores more
47%

Silver Strikers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Silver Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Ntopwa 0–1 Silver Strikers

Silver Strikers beat Ntopwa 1-0 in Super League on August 4, 2019.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium (Blantyre).