Silva 0–2 Atlético Arteixo: Result & Stats

Silva

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Atlético Arteixo

12/14/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Campo Municipal de Fútbol Rodrigo García Vizoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Silva38%

×Draw28%

Atlético Arteixo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SilvaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Arteixo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.14

Silva

1.23

Atlético Arteixo

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 67 away

1.10

creates per match

1.22

1.06

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Silva

1.10

Atlético Arteixo

1.22

allows per match

Silva

1.06

Atlético Arteixo

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Silva+0.00on par

Atlético Arteixo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silva ↓

Atlético Arteixo →

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Silva or draw

66%

Silva or Atlético Arteixo

72%

Draw or Atlético Arteixo

62%

Winning margin

Silva wins by 2+

17%

Atlético Arteixo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Silva 1+ goals

71%

Silva 2+ goals

35%

Silva 3+ goals

13%

Atlético Arteixo 1+ goals

68%

Atlético Arteixo 2+ goals

32%

Atlético Arteixo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Silva (draw refunded)

53%

Atlético Arteixo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Silva at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

Atlético Arteixo away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Silva attack 1.10 + Atlético Arteixo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.23

Atlético Arteixo attack 1.22 + Silva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Silva scores more

38%

level

28%

Atlético Arteixo scores more

34%

Silva at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Silva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff