Atlético Arteixo 2–2 Silva: Result & Stats

Atlético Arteixo

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Silva

5/9/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Ponte Dos Brozos Sintético

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Atlético Arteixo47%

×Draw26%

Silva27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético ArteixoExpected goals in this matchSilva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.08

Atlético Arteixo

1.50

Silva

1.08

Atlético Arteixo creates 39% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 110 away

1.46

creates per match

1.01

1.15

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Atlético Arteixo

1.46

Silva

1.01

allows per match

Atlético Arteixo

1.15

Silva

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Arteixo+0.00on par

Silva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Arteixo ↓

Silva →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Arteixo or draw

73%

Atlético Arteixo or Silva

74%

Draw or Silva

53%

Winning margin

Atlético Arteixo wins by 2+

23%

Silva wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atlético Arteixo 1+ goals

78%

Atlético Arteixo 2+ goals

44%

Atlético Arteixo 3+ goals

19%

Silva 1+ goals

66%

Silva 2+ goals

29%

Silva 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Arteixo (draw refunded)

63%

Silva (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Arteixo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 67 matches

Silva away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.54 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Arteixo attack 1.46 + Silva defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.50

Silva attack 1.01 + Atlético Arteixo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atlético Arteixo scores more

47%

level

26%

Silva scores more

27%

Atlético Arteixo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atlético Arteixo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff