Silva 1–0 Atlético Arnoia: Result & Stats

Silva

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Arnoia

2/6/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Campo Municipal de Fútbol Rodrigo García Vizoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Silva55%

×Draw26%

Atlético Arnoia19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SilvaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Arnoia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.75

Silva

1.49

Atlético Arnoia

0.75

Silva creates 99% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 16 away

1.10

creates per match

0.44

1.06

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Silva

1.10

Atlético Arnoia

0.44

allows per match

Silva

1.06

Atlético Arnoia

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Silva+0.00on par

Atlético Arnoia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silva ↓

Atlético Arnoia →

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Silva or draw

81%

Silva or Atlético Arnoia

74%

Draw or Atlético Arnoia

45%

Winning margin

Silva wins by 2+

28%

Atlético Arnoia wins by 2+

Team goals

Silva 1+ goals

77%

Silva 2+ goals

44%

Silva 3+ goals

19%

Atlético Arnoia 1+ goals

53%

Atlético Arnoia 2+ goals

17%

Atlético Arnoia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Silva (draw refunded)

74%

Atlético Arnoia (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Silva at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

Atlético Arnoia away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Silva attack 1.10 + Atlético Arnoia defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.49

Atlético Arnoia attack 0.44 + Silva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Silva scores more

55%

level

26%

Atlético Arnoia scores more

19%

Silva at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Silva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff