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Atlético Arnoia vs Silva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Arnoia
Atlético Arnoia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Silva
Silva
10/9/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Campo de fútbol da Queixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atlético Arnoia39%
×Draw27%
Silva35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Arnoia
1.33
Silva
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 110 away

creates per match

Atlético Arnoia
1.13
Silva
1.01

allows per match

Atlético Arnoia
1.50
Silva
1.54

finishing

Atlético Arnoia+0.00on par
Silva+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Arnoia ↓

Silva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Arnoia or draw
65%
Atlético Arnoia or Silva
73%
Draw or Silva
61%

Winning margin

Atlético Arnoia wins by 2+
17%
Silva wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atlético Arnoia 1+ goals
74%
Atlético Arnoia 2+ goals
38%
Atlético Arnoia 3+ goals
15%
Silva 1+ goals
71%
Silva 2+ goals
36%
Silva 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atlético Arnoia (draw refunded)
53%
Silva (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Arnoia at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Silva away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.54 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Arnoia attack 1.13 + Silva defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

Silva attack 1.01 + Atlético Arnoia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlético Arnoia scores more
39%
level
27%
Silva scores more
35%

Atlético Arnoia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlético Arnoia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Atlético Arnoia 0–1 Silva

Silva beat Atlético Arnoia 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol da Queixeira in A Arnoia.