Šilutė 2–2 Panevėžys: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Šilutė

FT

2 – 2

Panevėžys

7/9/2017

1 Lyga · Round 16Šilutės miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Šilutė22%

×Draw24%

Panevėžys55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŠilutėExpected goals in this matchPanevėžys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.75

Šilutė

1.00

Panevėžys

1.75

Panevėžys creates 75% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

1.67

1.83

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Šilutė

1.00

Panevėžys

1.67

allows per match

Šilutė

1.83

Panevėžys

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šilutė+0.00on par

Panevėžys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šilutė ↓

Panevėžys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Šilutė or draw

45%

Šilutė or Panevėžys

76%

Draw or Panevėžys

78%

Winning margin

Šilutė wins by 2+

8%

Panevėžys wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Šilutė 1+ goals

63%

Šilutė 2+ goals

26%

Šilutė 3+ goals

8%

Panevėžys 1+ goals

83%

Panevėžys 2+ goals

52%

Panevėžys 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Šilutė (draw refunded)

28%

Panevėžys (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šilutė at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Panevėžys away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šilutė attack 1.00 + Panevėžys defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Panevėžys attack 1.67 + Šilutė defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Šilutė scores more

22%

level

24%

Panevėžys scores more

55%

Panevėžys at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Panevėžys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff