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Panevėžys vs Šilutė — 1 Lyga 2026

Panevėžys
Panevėžys
FT
1 – 0
Šilutė
Šilutė
3/26/20161 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 1Panevėžio futbolo akademijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Panevėžys64%
×Draw20%
Šilutė16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panevėžys
2.08
Šilutė
0.92

Panevėžys creates 126% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Panevėžys
1.67
Šilutė
1.17

allows per match

Panevėžys
0.67
Šilutė
2.50

finishing

Panevėžys+0.00on par
Šilutė+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys ↓

Šilutė →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Panevėžys or draw
84%
Panevėžys or Šilutė
80%
Draw or Šilutė
36%

Winning margin

Panevėžys wins by 2+
40%
Šilutė wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Panevėžys 1+ goals
87%
Panevėžys 2+ goals
61%
Panevėžys 3+ goals
34%
Šilutė 1+ goals
60%
Šilutė 2+ goals
23%
Šilutė 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys (draw refunded)
80%
Šilutė (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Šilutė away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys attack 1.67 + Šilutė defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Šilutė attack 1.17 + Panevėžys defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Panevėžys scores more
64%
level
20%
Šilutė scores more
16%

Panevėžys at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Panevėžys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panevėžys vs Šilutė

Panevėžys beat Šilutė 1-0 in 1 Lyga on March 26, 2016.

The match was played at Panevėžio futbolo akademijos stadionas in Panevėžys.