Šilutė 0–2 Džiugas Telšiai: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Šilutė

FT

0 – 2

Džiugas Telšiai

10/24/2015

1 Lyga · Round 33Šilutės miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Šilutė22%

×Draw24%

Džiugas Telšiai54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŠilutėExpected goals in this matchDžiugas Telšiai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.75

Šilutė

1.04

Džiugas Telšiai

1.75

Džiugas Telšiai creates 68% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 27 away

1.00

creates per match

1.67

1.83

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Šilutė

1.00

Džiugas Telšiai

1.67

allows per match

Šilutė

1.83

Džiugas Telšiai

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šilutė+0.00on par

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šilutė ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Šilutė or draw

46%

Šilutė or Džiugas Telšiai

76%

Draw or Džiugas Telšiai

78%

Winning margin

Šilutė wins by 2+

8%

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Šilutė 1+ goals

65%

Šilutė 2+ goals

28%

Šilutė 3+ goals

9%

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

83%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

52%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Šilutė (draw refunded)

29%

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šilutė at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šilutė attack 1.00 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.67 + Šilutė defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Šilutė scores more

22%

level

24%

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

54%

Džiugas Telšiai at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff