Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Šilutė vs Džiugas Telšiai — Cup 2020

Šilutė
Šilutė
FT
1 – 3
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
6/16/2020CupCup · 1st RoundŠilutės miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Šilutė6%
×Draw10%
Džiugas Telšiai84%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šilutė
0.88
Džiugas Telšiai
3.53

Džiugas Telšiai creates 301% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 16 away

creates per match

Šilutė
0.75
Džiugas Telšiai
2.81

allows per match

Šilutė
4.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.00

finishing

Šilutė+0.00on par
Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šilutė ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–28%
0–310%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Šilutė or draw
16%
Šilutė or Džiugas Telšiai
90%
Draw or Džiugas Telšiai
94%

Winning margin

Šilutė wins by 2+
2%
Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
68%

Team goals

Šilutė 1+ goals
59%
Šilutė 2+ goals
22%
Šilutė 3+ goals
6%
Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
97%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
86%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
66%

Draw no bet

Šilutė (draw refunded)
6%
Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šilutė at home — creates 0.75, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 2.81, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šilutė attack 0.75 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Džiugas Telšiai attack 2.81 + Šilutė defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Šilutė scores more
6%
level
10%
Džiugas Telšiai scores more
84%

Džiugas Telšiai at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Šilutė 1–3 Džiugas Telšiai

Džiugas Telšiai beat Šilutė 3-1 in Cup on June 16, 2020.

The match was played at Šilutės miesto stadionas in Šilutė.