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Džiugas Telšiai vs Šilutė — 1 Lyga 2026

Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
FT
1 – 4
Šilutė
Šilutė
10/12/20161 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 21Telšių centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Džiugas Telšiai65%
×Draw19%
Šilutė16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Džiugas Telšiai
2.27
Šilutė
1.02

Džiugas Telšiai creates 123% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 6 away

creates per match

Džiugas Telšiai
2.04
Šilutė
1.17

allows per match

Džiugas Telšiai
0.88
Šilutė
2.50

finishing

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par
Šilutė+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Džiugas Telšiai ↓

Šilutė →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Džiugas Telšiai or draw
84%
Džiugas Telšiai or Šilutė
81%
Draw or Šilutė
35%

Winning margin

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
42%
Šilutė wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
90%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
66%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
39%
Šilutė 1+ goals
64%
Šilutė 2+ goals
27%
Šilutė 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
80%
Šilutė (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Džiugas Telšiai at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Šilutė away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Džiugas Telšiai attack 2.04 + Šilutė defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.27

Šilutė attack 1.17 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Džiugas Telšiai scores more
65%
level
19%
Šilutė scores more
16%

Džiugas Telšiai at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Džiugas Telšiai 1–4 Šilutė

Šilutė beat Džiugas Telšiai 4-1 in 1 Lyga on October 12, 2016.

The match was played at Telšių centrinis stadionas in Telšiai.