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Silla vs Torrent — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Silla
Silla
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Torrent
Torrent
1/22/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 17Complejo Deportivo Municipal Vicent Morera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Silla34%
×Draw31%
Torrent35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silla
1.00
Torrent
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 47 away

creates per match

Silla
0.91
Torrent
0.98

allows per match

Silla
1.07
Torrent
1.09

finishing

Silla+0.00on par
Torrent+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silla ↓

Torrent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Silla or draw
65%
Silla or Torrent
69%
Draw or Torrent
66%

Winning margin

Silla wins by 2+
13%
Torrent wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Silla 1+ goals
63%
Silla 2+ goals
26%
Silla 3+ goals
8%
Torrent 1+ goals
64%
Torrent 2+ goals
27%
Torrent 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Silla (draw refunded)
49%
Torrent (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silla at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.07 · 76 matches

Torrent away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.09 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silla attack 0.91 + Torrent defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.00

Torrent attack 0.98 + Silla defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Silla scores more
34%
level
31%
Torrent scores more
35%

Torrent at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Torrent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Silla 0 – 2 Torrent

Torrent beat Silla 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 22, 2023.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Municipal Vicent Morera in Silla.