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Silkeborg vs Randers FC — Superliga 2024

Silkeborg
Silkeborg
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Randers FC
Randers FC
J. Nielsen 89'
A. Simmelhack 8'
4/26/2026SuperligaSuperliga · Relegation Group - 29Jysk Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Silkeborg33%
×Draw23%
Randers FC43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silkeborg
1.48
Randers FC
1.72

Randers FC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Silkeborg
1.46
Randers FC
1.62

allows per match

Silkeborg
1.82
Randers FC
1.51

finishing

Silkeborg-0.66scores less
Randers FC-0.95scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silkeborg ↓

Randers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Silkeborg or draw
57%
Silkeborg or Randers FC
77%
Draw or Randers FC
67%

Winning margin

Silkeborg wins by 2+
15%
Randers FC wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Silkeborg 1+ goals
77%
Silkeborg 2+ goals
43%
Silkeborg 3+ goals
19%
Randers FC 1+ goals
82%
Randers FC 2+ goals
51%
Randers FC 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Silkeborg (draw refunded)
43%
Randers FC (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silkeborg at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.82 · 5 matches

Randers FC away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.51 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silkeborg attack 1.46 + Randers FC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48

Randers FC attack 1.62 + Silkeborg defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Silkeborg scores more
33%
level
23%
Randers FC scores more
43%

Randers FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Randers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
N. LarsenSilkeborgSilkeborg · G
10.0

Match Events

7'
S. Stuker← A. Poulsen
8'
A. Simmelhack↳ S. Stuker
41'
Wessel Dammers
46'
V. Westh← O. Ross
62'
M. Larsen← A. Simmelhack
63'
M. Freundlich← A. Wikman
68'
B. Orn← L. Lissens
68'
O. Seck← C. Edudzi
77'
M. Sjolstad← N. Dyhr
78'
T. Klidje← L. Pedersen
81'
John Björkengren
81'
M. Themsen← E. Mahmoud
85'
J. Nielsen← W. Kirk
89'
J. Nielsen↳ C. McCowatt
90+5'
Robin Østrøm

Possession

46%Silkeborg

Shots

12Silkeborg

Pass accuracy

49%Silkeborg

Statistics

SilkeborgRanders
Overview
46%Possession54%
12Total Shots18
1.35Expected Goals (xG)2.43
3Corners5
7Fouls15
Shots
12Total Shots18
7On Target8
2Off Target6
3Blocked4
7Inside Box12
5Outside Box6
Passing
46%Possession54%
500Total Passes576
408Accurate Passes502
82%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
8Saves5
0.33Goals Prevented0.33
Discipline
7Fouls15
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Superliga: Silkeborg 2–0 Randers FC

Silkeborg beat Randers FC 2-0 in Superliga on April 26, 2026.

Goals: A. Simmelhack (8'), J. Nielsen (89').

Randers FC controlled possession (54%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at Jysk Park in Silkeborg.