Randers FC 1–3 Silkeborg: Result & Stats

Randers FC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Silkeborg

E. Mahmoud 39'

J. Andersen 71'

C. McCowatt 26'

P. Mattsson 8'

6/1/2025

Superliga · Conference League Play-offs - FinalCeres Park Vejlby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Randers FC43%

×Draw26%

Silkeborg31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Randers FCExpected goals in this matchSilkeborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.18

Randers FC

1.45

Silkeborg

1.18

Randers FC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.22

creates per match

0.93

1.43

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Randers FC

1.22

Silkeborg

0.93

allows per match

Randers FC

1.43

Silkeborg

1.68

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Randers FC-0.11scores less

Silkeborg+0.24scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Randers FC ↓

Silkeborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Randers FC or draw

69%

Randers FC or Silkeborg

74%

Draw or Silkeborg

57%

Winning margin

Randers FC wins by 2+

21%

Silkeborg wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Randers FC 1+ goals

77%

Randers FC 2+ goals

42%

Randers FC 3+ goals

18%

Silkeborg 1+ goals

69%

Silkeborg 2+ goals

33%

Silkeborg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Randers FC (draw refunded)

58%

Silkeborg (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Randers FC at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.43 · 9 matches

Silkeborg away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.68 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Randers FC attack 1.22 + Silkeborg defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.45

Silkeborg attack 0.93 + Randers FC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Randers FC scores more

43%

level

26%

Silkeborg scores more

31%

Randers FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Randers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

P. Mattsson

Silkeborg · M

8.3

Match Events

8'

P. Mattsson↳ A. Poulsen

26'

C. McCowatt↳ P. Mattsson

39'

E. Mahmoud↳ O. Olsen

43'

J. Andersen← A. Simmelhack

44'

46'

49'

62'

69'

71'

J. Andersen↳ R. Østrøm

75'

André Rømer

75'

A. Sulemana← A. Rømer

75'

M. Themsen← M. Touré

78'

M. Freundlich← M. Larsen

85'

N. Campbell← S. Nordli

85'

S. Odey← E. Mahmoud

88'

F. Lauenborg← J. Björkengren

90+2'

Tonni AdamsenMissed penalty

90'

Jeppe AndersenPenalty confirmed

90+1'

O. Boesen← C. McCowatt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RandersSilkeborg

Overview

50%Possession50%

17Total Shots18

4Corners5

13Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots18

5On Target9

9Off Target4

3Blocked5

13Inside Box10

4Outside Box8

Passing

50%Possession50%

543Total Passes551

484Accurate Passes485

89%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Randers FC vs Silkeborg

Silkeborg beat Randers FC 3-1 in Superliga on June 1, 2025.

Goals: P. Mattsson (8'), C. McCowatt (26'), E. Mahmoud (39'), J. Andersen (71').

Randers FC controlled possession (50%) and registered 17 shots to 18.

The match was played at Ceres Park Vejlby in Risskov.

Randers FC vs Silkeborg — Superliga 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Randers FC vs Silkeborg