Silkeborg 1–1 KA Akureyri: Result & Stats

Silkeborg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

KA Akureyri

C. McCowatt 39'

H. Steingrimsson 90'

7/23/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundJysk Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Silkeborg45%

×Draw23%

KA Akureyri32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SilkeborgExpected goals in this matchKA Akureyri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.50

Silkeborg

1.83

KA Akureyri

1.50

Silkeborg creates 22% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

1.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Silkeborg

1.67

KA Akureyri

1.50

allows per match

Silkeborg

1.50

KA Akureyri

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Silkeborg+0.00on par

KA Akureyri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silkeborg ↓

KA Akureyri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Silkeborg or draw

68%

Silkeborg or KA Akureyri

77%

Draw or KA Akureyri

55%

Winning margin

Silkeborg wins by 2+

25%

KA Akureyri wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Silkeborg 1+ goals

84%

Silkeborg 2+ goals

54%

Silkeborg 3+ goals

28%

KA Akureyri 1+ goals

78%

KA Akureyri 2+ goals

44%

KA Akureyri 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Silkeborg (draw refunded)

59%

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silkeborg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

KA Akureyri away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silkeborg attack 1.67 + KA Akureyri defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

KA Akureyri attack 1.50 + Silkeborg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Silkeborg scores more

45%

level

23%

KA Akureyri scores more

32%

Silkeborg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Silkeborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

S. Audunsson

KA Akureyri · G

8.9

Match Events

24'

Alexander Simmelhack

39'

C. McCowatt↳ P. Mattsson

46'

J. Andersen← A. Simmelhack

46'

B. Ingason← I. Stole

64'

V. Kjartansson← A. Sigurgeirsson

67'

Pelle Mattsson

70'

Jeppe Andersen

76'

J. Gammelby← L. Montano

76'

S. Mikkelsen← R. Al Hajj

81'

B. Baldvinsson← G. Hrafnkelsson

83'

M. Larsen← M. Freundlich

90'

H. Steingrimsson↳ Rodri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SilkeborgKA

Overview

65%Possession35%

16Total Shots6

3Corners5

8Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots6

8On Target2

5Off Target3

3Blocked1

7Inside Box5

9Outside Box1

Passing

65%Possession35%

781Total Passes413

721Accurate Passes357

92%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

8Fouls7

3Yellow Cards0

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Silkeborg vs KA Akureyri

Silkeborg and KA Akureyri drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 23, 2025.

Goals: C. McCowatt (39'), H. Steingrimsson (90').

Silkeborg controlled possession (65%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Jysk Park in Silkeborg.

Silkeborg vs KA Akureyri — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Silkeborg vs KA Akureyri