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KA Akureyri vs Silkeborg — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

KA Akureyri
KA Akureyri
AET
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Silkeborg
Silkeborg
V. Kjartansson 86'
H. Steingrimsson 34' (pen)
T. Adamsen 114', 62', 54'
7/31/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundAkureyrarvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KA Akureyri31%
×Draw22%
Silkeborg47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KA Akureyri
1.50
Silkeborg
1.88

Silkeborg creates 25% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

KA Akureyri
2.00
Silkeborg
1.75

allows per match

KA Akureyri
2.00
Silkeborg
1.00

finishing

KA Akureyri+0.00on par
Silkeborg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KA Akureyri ↓

Silkeborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

KA Akureyri or draw
53%
KA Akureyri or Silkeborg
78%
Draw or Silkeborg
69%

Winning margin

KA Akureyri wins by 2+
14%
Silkeborg wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

KA Akureyri 1+ goals
78%
KA Akureyri 2+ goals
44%
KA Akureyri 3+ goals
19%
Silkeborg 1+ goals
85%
Silkeborg 2+ goals
56%
Silkeborg 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)
40%
Silkeborg (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KA Akureyri at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Silkeborg away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KA Akureyri attack 2.00 + Silkeborg defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Silkeborg attack 1.75 + KA Akureyri defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

KA Akureyri scores more
31%
level
22%
Silkeborg scores more
47%

Silkeborg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Silkeborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
H. SteingrimssonSilkeborgSilkeborg
9.7

Match Events

20'
Bjarni Aðalsteinsson
33'
Nicolai Larsen
34'
H. SteingrimssonPenalty
46'
P. Mattsson← M. Freundlich
54'
T. Adamsen↳ J. Gammelby
59'
Marcel Rømer
62'
T. Adamsen
70'
V. Kjartansson← J. S. Edmundsson
70'
A. Sigurgeirsson← B. Ingason
78'
Ásgeir Sigurgeirsson
84'
B. Baldvinsson← G. Hrafnkelsson
84'
D. Valsson← M. Romer
86'
V. Kjartansson↳ A. Sigurgeirsson
87'
K. Gautason← I. Arnason
96'
A. Bondergaard← C. McCowatt
96'
L. Montano← A. Poulsen
100'
I. Stole←
106'
J. Andersen← R. Al Hajj
106'
M. Larsen← J. Nielsen
114'
T. Adamsen
118'
O. Boesen← Y. Bakiz

Possession

37%KA

Shots

21KA

Pass accuracy

47%KA

Statistics

KASilkeborg
Overview
37%Possession63%
21Total Shots22
5Corners5
16Fouls19
Shots
21Total Shots22
7On Target7
8Off Target4
6Blocked11
12Inside Box14
9Outside Box8
Passing
37%Possession63%
466Total Passes836
364Accurate Passes728
78%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls19
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

Match Recap: KA Akureyri vs Silkeborg

KA Akureyri and Silkeborg drew 2-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 31, 2025.

Goals: H. Steingrimsson (34' pen), T. Adamsen (54', 62', 114'), V. Kjartansson (86').

Silkeborg controlled possession (63%) and registered 22 shots to 21.

The match was played at Akureyrarvöllur in Akureyri.