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Silkeborg KFUM vs Næsby — 3. Division 2021

Silkeborg KFUM
Silkeborg KFUM
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Næsby
Næsby
9/8/20233. Division3. Division · Round 6JYSK park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Silkeborg KFUM40%
×Draw24%
Næsby36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silkeborg KFUM
1.54
Næsby
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 80 away

creates per match

Silkeborg KFUM
1.58
Næsby
1.60

allows per match

Silkeborg KFUM
1.30
Næsby
1.49

finishing

Silkeborg KFUM+0.00on par
Næsby+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silkeborg KFUM ↓

Næsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Silkeborg KFUM or draw
64%
Silkeborg KFUM or Næsby
76%
Draw or Næsby
60%

Winning margin

Silkeborg KFUM wins by 2+
19%
Næsby wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Silkeborg KFUM 1+ goals
79%
Silkeborg KFUM 2+ goals
45%
Silkeborg KFUM 3+ goals
20%
Næsby 1+ goals
77%
Næsby 2+ goals
42%
Næsby 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Silkeborg KFUM (draw refunded)
53%
Næsby (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silkeborg KFUM at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Næsby away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.49 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silkeborg KFUM attack 1.58 + Næsby defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.54

Næsby attack 1.60 + Silkeborg KFUM defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Silkeborg KFUM scores more
40%
level
24%
Næsby scores more
36%

Silkeborg KFUM at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Silkeborg KFUM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division: Silkeborg KFUM 3–3 Næsby

Silkeborg KFUM and Næsby drew 3-3 in 3. Division on September 8, 2023.

The match was played at JYSK park in Silkeborg.