Næsby 2–0 Silkeborg KFUM: Result & Stats

Næsby

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Silkeborg KFUM

3/18/2023

3. Division · Round 18Ådalen bane 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Næsby43%

×Draw23%

Silkeborg KFUM33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NæsbyExpected goals in this matchSilkeborg KFUM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.47

Næsby

1.71

Silkeborg KFUM

1.47

Næsby creates 16% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 64 away

1.95

creates per match

1.50

1.44

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Næsby

1.95

Silkeborg KFUM

1.50

allows per match

Næsby

1.44

Silkeborg KFUM

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Næsby+0.00on par

Silkeborg KFUM+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Næsby ↓

Silkeborg KFUM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Næsby or draw

67%

Næsby or Silkeborg KFUM

77%

Draw or Silkeborg KFUM

57%

Winning margin

Næsby wins by 2+

23%

Silkeborg KFUM wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Næsby 1+ goals

82%

Næsby 2+ goals

51%

Næsby 3+ goals

24%

Silkeborg KFUM 1+ goals

77%

Silkeborg KFUM 2+ goals

43%

Silkeborg KFUM 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Næsby (draw refunded)

57%

Silkeborg KFUM (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Næsby at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Silkeborg KFUM away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Næsby attack 1.95 + Silkeborg KFUM defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.71

Silkeborg KFUM attack 1.50 + Næsby defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Næsby scores more

43%

level

23%

Silkeborg KFUM scores more

33%

Næsby at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Næsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff