Silifke Belediyespor 0–1 Karaköprü Belediyespor

Silifke Belediyespor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Karaköprü Belediyespor

3/15/2026

League #553 · Group 2 - 25Silifke Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Silifke Belediyespor50%

×Draw24%

Karaköprü Belediyespor26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Silifke BelediyesporExpected goals in this matchKaraköprü Belediyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.13

Silifke Belediyespor

1.67

Karaköprü Belediyespor

1.13

Silifke Belediyespor creates 48% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

1.67

creates per match

0.93

1.33

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Silifke Belediyespor

1.67

Karaköprü Belediyespor

0.93

allows per match

Silifke Belediyespor

1.33

Karaköprü Belediyespor

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Silifke Belediyespor+0.00on par

Karaköprü Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silifke Belediyespor ↓

Karaköprü Belediyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Silifke Belediyespor or draw

74%

Silifke Belediyespor or Karaköprü Belediyespor

76%

Draw or Karaköprü Belediyespor

50%

Winning margin

Silifke Belediyespor wins by 2+

27%

Karaköprü Belediyespor wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Silifke Belediyespor 1+ goals

81%

Silifke Belediyespor 2+ goals

50%

Silifke Belediyespor 3+ goals

23%

Karaköprü Belediyespor 1+ goals

68%

Karaköprü Belediyespor 2+ goals

31%

Karaköprü Belediyespor 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Silifke Belediyespor (draw refunded)

66%

Karaköprü Belediyespor (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silifke Belediyespor at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Karaköprü Belediyespor away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silifke Belediyespor attack 1.67 + Karaköprü Belediyespor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Karaköprü Belediyespor attack 0.93 + Silifke Belediyespor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Silifke Belediyespor scores more

50%

level

24%

Karaköprü Belediyespor scores more

26%

Silifke Belediyespor at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Silifke Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff