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Karaköprü Belediyespor vs Silifke Belediyespor — League #553 2026

Karaköprü Belediyespor
Karaköprü Belediyespor
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Silifke Belediyespor
Silifke Belediyespor
M. Aytemiz 90+7'
U. Ozder 38'
11/9/2025League #553League #553 · Group 2 - 10Faruk Çelik Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Karaköprü Belediyespor32%
×Draw31%
Silifke Belediyespor37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karaköprü Belediyespor
0.97
Silifke Belediyespor
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

creates per match

Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.60
Silifke Belediyespor
1.00

allows per match

Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.13
Silifke Belediyespor
0.33

finishing

Karaköprü Belediyespor+0.00on par
Silifke Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karaköprü Belediyespor ↓

Silifke Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Karaköprü Belediyespor or draw
63%
Karaköprü Belediyespor or Silifke Belediyespor
69%
Draw or Silifke Belediyespor
68%

Winning margin

Karaköprü Belediyespor wins by 2+
12%
Silifke Belediyespor wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Karaköprü Belediyespor 1+ goals
62%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 2+ goals
25%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 3+ goals
7%
Silifke Belediyespor 1+ goals
65%
Silifke Belediyespor 2+ goals
29%
Silifke Belediyespor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Karaköprü Belediyespor (draw refunded)
47%
Silifke Belediyespor (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karaköprü Belediyespor at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Silifke Belediyespor away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karaköprü Belediyespor attack 1.60 + Silifke Belediyespor defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.97

Silifke Belediyespor attack 1.00 + Karaköprü Belediyespor defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Karaköprü Belediyespor scores more
32%
level
31%
Silifke Belediyespor scores more
37%

Silifke Belediyespor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Silifke Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
U. Ozder
90+7'
M. Aytemiz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #553: Karaköprü Belediyespor 0–2 Silifke Belediyespor

Silifke Belediyespor beat Karaköprü Belediyespor 2-0 in League #553 on November 9, 2025.

Goals: U. Ozder (38'), M. Aytemiz (90+7').

The match was played at Faruk Çelik Spor Kompleksi in Şanlıurfa.