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Silibwet vs Mwatate United — Super League 2018

Silibwet
Silibwet
FT
1 – 2
Mwatate United
Mwatate United
2/26/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Bomet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Silibwet43%
×Draw27%
Mwatate United30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silibwet
1.40
Mwatate United
1.13

Silibwet creates 24% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 53 away

creates per match

Silibwet
1.10
Mwatate United
0.77

allows per match

Silibwet
1.48
Mwatate United
1.70

finishing

Silibwet+0.00on par
Mwatate United+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silibwet ↓

Mwatate United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Silibwet or draw
70%
Silibwet or Mwatate United
73%
Draw or Mwatate United
57%

Winning margin

Silibwet wins by 2+
20%
Mwatate United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Silibwet 1+ goals
75%
Silibwet 2+ goals
41%
Silibwet 3+ goals
17%
Mwatate United 1+ goals
68%
Mwatate United 2+ goals
31%
Mwatate United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Silibwet (draw refunded)
59%
Mwatate United (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silibwet at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

Mwatate United away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silibwet attack 1.10 + Mwatate United defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.40

Mwatate United attack 0.77 + Silibwet defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Silibwet scores more
43%
level
27%
Mwatate United scores more
30%

Silibwet at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Silibwet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Silibwet vs Mwatate United

Mwatate United beat Silibwet 2-1 in Super League on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Bomet Stadium in Bomet.