Mwatate United 3–4 Silibwet: Result & Stats

Mwatate United

FT

3 – 4

Silibwet

12/19/2021

Super League · Round 9Wundanyi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Mwatate United56%

×Draw23%

Silibwet21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mwatate UnitedExpected goals in this matchSilibwet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.04

Mwatate United

1.83

Silibwet

1.04

Mwatate United creates 76% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 54 away

1.30

creates per match

0.63

1.45

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Mwatate United

1.30

Silibwet

0.63

allows per match

Mwatate United

1.45

Silibwet

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mwatate United+0.00on par

Silibwet+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mwatate United ↓

Silibwet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mwatate United or draw

79%

Mwatate United or Silibwet

77%

Draw or Silibwet

44%

Winning margin

Mwatate United wins by 2+

32%

Silibwet wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Mwatate United 1+ goals

84%

Mwatate United 2+ goals

54%

Mwatate United 3+ goals

28%

Silibwet 1+ goals

65%

Silibwet 2+ goals

28%

Silibwet 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mwatate United (draw refunded)

72%

Silibwet (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mwatate United at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

Silibwet away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.37 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mwatate United attack 1.30 + Silibwet defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.83

Silibwet attack 0.63 + Mwatate United defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mwatate United scores more

56%

level

23%

Silibwet scores more

21%

Mwatate United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mwatate United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff