Sileks 1–0 Makedonija GjP: Result & Stats

Sileks

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Makedonija GjP

3/10/2024

First League · Round 23Gradski stadion Kratovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Sileks51%

×Draw25%

Makedonija GjP24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SileksExpected goals in this matchMakedonija GjP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.03

Sileks

1.63

Makedonija GjP

1.03

Sileks creates 58% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 94 away

1.61

creates per match

1.14

0.92

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Sileks

1.61

Makedonija GjP

1.14

allows per match

Sileks

0.92

Makedonija GjP

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sileks+0.00on par

Makedonija GjP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sileks ↓

Makedonija GjP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sileks or draw

76%

Sileks or Makedonija GjP

75%

Draw or Makedonija GjP

49%

Winning margin

Sileks wins by 2+

27%

Makedonija GjP wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sileks 1+ goals

80%

Sileks 2+ goals

48%

Sileks 3+ goals

22%

Makedonija GjP 1+ goals

64%

Makedonija GjP 2+ goals

28%

Makedonija GjP 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sileks (draw refunded)

68%

Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sileks at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.92 · 93 matches

Makedonija GjP away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sileks attack 1.61 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Makedonija GjP attack 1.14 + Sileks defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sileks scores more

51%

level

25%

Makedonija GjP scores more

24%

Sileks at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sileks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff