Makedonija GjP 4–2 Sileks: Result & Stats

Makedonija GjP

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sileks

O. Aydogan 90' (pen)

E. Guerrero 56', 47'

J. H. Estupinan Riascos 15'

I. Donov 73'

A. Mishov 32' (pen)

5/25/2026

First League · Round 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Makedonija GjP40%

×Draw27%

Sileks33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Makedonija GjPExpected goals in this matchSileks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.14

Makedonija GjP

1.28

Sileks

1.14

Makedonija GjP creates 12% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 91 away

1.36

creates per match

1.24

1.03

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Makedonija GjP

1.36

Sileks

1.24

allows per match

Makedonija GjP

1.03

Sileks

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Makedonija GjP+0.00on par

Sileks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Makedonija GjP ↓

Sileks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Makedonija GjP or draw

67%

Makedonija GjP or Sileks

73%

Draw or Sileks

60%

Winning margin

Makedonija GjP wins by 2+

18%

Sileks wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Makedonija GjP 1+ goals

72%

Makedonija GjP 2+ goals

37%

Makedonija GjP 3+ goals

14%

Sileks 1+ goals

68%

Sileks 2+ goals

32%

Sileks 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)

55%

Sileks (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Makedonija GjP at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 91 matches

Sileks away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Makedonija GjP attack 1.36 + Sileks defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sileks attack 1.24 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Makedonija GjP scores more

40%

level

27%

Sileks scores more

33%

Makedonija GjP at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Makedonija GjP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

J. H. Estupinan Riascos

23'

S. NikolicGoal Disallowed - video review

27'

M. Richkov

31'

S. Nikolic

32'

A. MishovPenalty

46'

G. Djekov← I. Subert

47'

E. Guerrero

56'

O. Aydogan← A. Adem

56'

I. Galevski← S. Nikolic

56'

E. Guerrero

60'

I. Donov← A. Mishov

67'

M. Bozinovski← O. Berovikj

72'

M. Blazeski← F. Stojcevski

73'

I. Donov

75'

L. Jakimovski← M. Dimitrievski

90+3'

G. Djekov

90+1'

B. Tomovski← M. Richkov

90+1'

A. Emini← J. H. Estupinan Riascos

90'

O. AydoganPenalty

Makedonija

Sileks

12

Gjorgjiev

3

▼

10

11

13

18

▼

Berovikj

19

⚽

▼

26

77

88

99

▼

12

4

6

7

⚽2

Guerrero

11

Lazarevik

14

▼

Adem

19

▼

Stojcevsk

27

▼

Nikolic

30

⚽

▼

Riascos

31

Sherifi

70

▼

Richkov

Manager: Boban Bozinovski

56'▲O. Aydogan←▼A. Adem

56'▲I. Galevski←▼S. Nikolic

72'▲M. Blazeski←▼F. Stojcevski

90+1'▲B. Tomovski←▼M. Richkov

90+1'▲A. Emini←▼J. H. Estupinan Riascos

Makedonija GjP substitutes

25Jovchev2Martinovski3Tomovski9Emini10Blazeski17Shabani18Elmas22Aydogan32Galevski

Manager: Aleksandar Vasoski

46'▲G. Djekov←▼I. Subert

60'▲I. Donov←▼A. Mishov

67'▲M. Bozinovski←▼O. Berovikj

75'▲L. Jakimovski←▼M. Dimitrievski

Sileks substitutes

1Bozinovski4Jakimovski5Djekov6Bozinovski7Timovski16Donov21Nikolovski

First League: Makedonija GjP 4–2 Sileks

Makedonija GjP beat Sileks 4-2 in First League on May 25, 2026.

Goals: J. H. Estupinan Riascos (15'), A. Mishov (32' pen), E. Guerrero (47', 56'), I. Donov (73'), O. Aydogan (90' pen).

Makedonija GjP vs Sileks — First League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Makedonija GjP 4–2 Sileks