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Sileks vs Besa Dobërdoll — First League 2019

Sileks
Sileks
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Besa Dobërdoll
Besa Dobërdoll
4/13/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 27Gradski stadion Kratovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sileks57%
×Draw24%
Besa Dobërdoll19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sileks
1.69
Besa Dobërdoll
0.87

Sileks creates 94% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sileks
1.61
Besa Dobërdoll
0.82

allows per match

Sileks
0.92
Besa Dobërdoll
1.76

finishing

Sileks+0.00on par
Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sileks ↓

Besa Dobërdoll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sileks or draw
81%
Sileks or Besa Dobërdoll
76%
Draw or Besa Dobërdoll
43%

Winning margin

Sileks wins by 2+
31%
Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sileks 1+ goals
82%
Sileks 2+ goals
50%
Sileks 3+ goals
24%
Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals
58%
Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals
22%
Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sileks (draw refunded)
75%
Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sileks at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.92 · 93 matches

Besa Dobërdoll away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sileks attack 1.61 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Besa Dobërdoll attack 0.82 + Sileks defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sileks scores more
57%
level
24%
Besa Dobërdoll scores more
19%

Sileks at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sileks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Sileks 5–0 Besa Dobërdoll

Sileks beat Besa Dobërdoll 5-0 in First League on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Kratovo in Kratovo.