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Besa Dobërdoll vs Sileks — First League 2019

Besa Dobërdoll
Besa Dobërdoll
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Sileks
Sileks
3/5/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Stadiumi i qytetit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Besa Dobërdoll30%
×Draw27%
Sileks43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besa Dobërdoll
1.13
Sileks
1.40

Sileks creates 24% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 91 away

creates per match

Besa Dobërdoll
1.06
Sileks
1.24

allows per match

Besa Dobërdoll
1.56
Sileks
1.20

finishing

Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par
Sileks+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Dobërdoll ↓

Sileks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Besa Dobërdoll or draw
57%
Besa Dobërdoll or Sileks
73%
Draw or Sileks
70%

Winning margin

Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+
12%
Sileks wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals
68%
Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals
31%
Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals
11%
Sileks 1+ goals
75%
Sileks 2+ goals
41%
Sileks 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)
41%
Sileks (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Dobërdoll at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Sileks away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Dobërdoll attack 1.06 + Sileks defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Sileks attack 1.24 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Besa Dobërdoll scores more
30%
level
27%
Sileks scores more
43%

Sileks at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sileks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Besa Dobërdoll 0–5 Sileks

Sileks beat Besa Dobërdoll 5-0 in First League on March 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stadiumi i qytetit in Gostivar.